2008 Bowl Projection Edition - 11/3/08
Some weekends in college football just over-do the excitement, suspense, and drama. This was one of those weekends. Game after game defined why 18-22 year old kids are more fun to watch play football than 35-year old multi-millionaires. The BcS and lack of playoff system do everything they can to hold down the greatest sport on the planet; but the game itself continues to overcome. We begin:
- The Texas/Texas Tech game was the best game I have watched all year. What a crowd, and what a team. The idea of Tech beating Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma, and winning the Big-12 championship game, does not seem very likely to me. But, I would not place a wager against it. That is an awesome team, and that coach has done a remarkable job (UCLA passed on him last year). QB Harrell and WR Crabtree are the two frontrunners for Heisman as far as I am concerned after that game. If someone else can tell me the last time the #1 team in the country lost on a play with 1 second to go, please pass it on.
- The Alabama and Oklahoma wins were snoozers, but Florida's win (while also a blowout) was more interesting, because (a) It solidified that the SEC is having its worse year in a decade (essentially, Alabama and Florida and possibly LSU have become the only teams of national interest in the conference), and (b) It confirmed what I believe, which is that Florida is not a team to be messed with right now. I am not sure how well-coached they are, but I also am not sure how much coaching is needed there. Their physical superiority should bring them the SEC title, and I suspect pollsters will end up forgiving their 3-point loss to Ole Miss (who, by the way, looks better than normal themselves).
- USC won 56-0, and will go the wrong direction in the polls. This is not something to be angry about, because as four or five times will be depressed to learn in the next month, the November 3 polls mean nothing. It also is not something to worry about, because the harsh realities are that Penn State, Alabama, and Texas Tech are undefeated, and Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas all have one loss as well. USC's fluke first half against Oregon State may or may not cost them a shot at the BcS championship game, but it will not cost them a shot at a BcS game. Only a loss to Cal, or Stanford, or Notre Dame, or UCLA will do that. Let me explain.
- If USC wins the rest of their games, and ends 11-1, they either will (a) Be in the BcS championship, or (b) Be in the Rose Bowl as the Pac-10 champ, or (c) Be in another BcS bowl game. How could option C happen? If 3-loss Oregon State wins out, they would win the tiebreaker with USC and go to the Rose Bowl. It does not seem likely to me that the Beavers will beat UCLA, and Cal, and Arizona, and Oregon. I suspect they go 2-2 from here. But it is possible. However, if the BcS championship ends up with two teams other than USC, and the Beavers go to the Rose Bowl with a 9-3 overall record, it is impossible that none of the other BcS bowls would use their election to take 11-1 USC. Remember, there are ten BCS teams now that they play four bowls plus a "championship game" (a farce of a title if there ever was one). Interesting stuff. All I care about is 11-1. The rest is embarrassing for a lover of this sport.
- When one looks at there being three undefeated teams still, and three one-loss teams that are pretty darn good (Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma), it looks like USC is best to focus on being 11-1 and going to The Rose Bowl. Ummmm. Actually, that is all they should focus on, regardless of what other team's schedules and records are. There is no playoff, so we do not have the option of doing it on the field. My guess is that Penn State stays undefeated, but a Michigan State loss is completely possible. I can not possibly see Alabama beating LSU on the road, and rival Auburn (who is positively awful this year), and then beating Florida in the SEC championship. But it could happen. Texas Tech has an even tougher road ahead then Bama'. If I were to bet money on it, I would say Florida will play Penn State in the championship, and beat them by about 1,200 points. However, Florida beating South Carolina, and Florida State, and winning the SEC championship game is hardly a foregone conclusion. The one thing I will say is this: All five of these teams ought to thank God every night before bed for Oregon State and that first half performance.
- The good Big 12 teams have awesome offenses this year - awesome. But they would not score against USC, and every objective fan knows it. USC's offense is not as good as Tech's, Oklahoma's, or Florida's (yet), but those defenses all give up a ton of points. Alabama could only beat USC is their defense scored three touchdowns (they have a remarkable defense too, but no where near the offense USC does). I just think that six or seven really, really good teams this year will end up with either zero or one losses, and that this little thing every sport at every level in the entire world does called a PLAYOFF BRACKET is how it ought to be solved. It is exhausting.
- I would like to get the people who keep saying that the BcS creates a situation where "every week is a playoff week" in my room. That is idiotic, and no such level of intellectual capability should be tolerated in the college football society. How does one explain two-loss LSU winning the title last year (by the way, one loss Kansas did not play). How does one explain 0-loss Auburn not making the game in 2004? How does one explain Nebraska losing by 700 points to Colorado one week, and making the BCS game the next week, back in 2000? The fact is only ONE year has featured two undefeated teams (as in, the only two undefeated teams), and nearly every year there are multiple teams of the same record that do not get in. And I am sure sometimes a one loss Kansas is actually not as good as a one loss Ohio State (last year), but my point is, in a playoff - we eliminate all the B and the S of the BcS. We just play. If someone has a bad game and loses, that is how playoff sports work. But to keep the team(s) that are playing the best at the end of the season from competing for the national championship is so stupid, so anti-American, and so detrimental to the ongoing credibility of the sport, I loathe the people defending this cluster-*&*^ of a system. By the way, it has nothing to do with the 2002 (maybe), 2003 (for sure), and 2007 (for sure) championship seasons that I think would be added to USC in a playoff system.
- Cal is a tough match this week, always plays the Trojans tough, and is one of the only Pac-10 teams with an even decent defense besides USC. They barely lost to a really good Arizona team in Tucson, and we barely beat a really good Arizona team in Tucson. They have had moments of looking very, very good, and admittedly some really mediocre moments too. But they have plenty to play for, and there is no doubt in my mind this is by far the best of the four teams we still have to play. 5pm can't come soon enough Saturday.
- If I had to rank the top 5, based on present situations and records and so forth, and not based on who I think is actually the best 5, or who will end up the best 5, here goes:
(1) Alabama - undefeated
(2) Texas Tech - undefeated
(3) Penn State - undefeated
(4) Florida - one loss by a tiny bit, and some big, impressive wins
(5) Texas - one loss by a tiny bit, and some big, impressive wins
- But, I believe the best 5 in the country are more like this:
(1) Florida/USC tied
(3) Texas Tech
(4) Alabama
(5) Oklahoma
- Out of time and have to hit send. There is much that can and will happen. Trojans -think of nothing but beating Cal. Everyone else, bad talk the BcS everywhere you go. Isn't this fun?
Fight on,
DLB