“A New Ruling Class or Nothing New Under the Sun”
There is a new school of thought (embodied in this thoughtful piece from Martin Gurri at The Free Press) that Trump 2.0 and the various unconventional people he is bringing along with him represent an entirely new assault on the “ruling class,” and that unlike Trump 1.0 there may be a seriousness of action this time which pulls it off.
The basic take goes like this:
“Elites failed” (fair enough)
Populists have increased in size and volume (true)
Attempts to marginalize the populist angst failed at the ballot box and in the culture (true)
Now the populists actually have to govern and stop whining (very very very true), AND
This time Trump is ready to do that (we shall see)
That fifth point is the one I suspect is riddled with projection and wishful thinking, but it does not mean it is wrong. The idea that Trump’s primary agenda this time is to “tame Leviathan” is hilarious to me, but I certainly wish it were true.
What authors like this and so many of the more intelligent Trump advocates out there often miss is the delta between what THEY like about Trump, and what HE is actually thinking. Put differently, the story of Trump (and the success of the second term) will come down to accidental overlap between the interests of those who think this way (taming Leviathan, better governance, DOGE, comparisons to Milei’s effectiveness with market reforms in Argentina, etc.) and what actually drives Trump (deep craving for acceptance and approval from both elites and the masses). Hoping for a kind of “beauty-from-chaos” where “misfits” turn out to be a new and worthy ruling class is, shall we say, a deeply contrarian bet.
For me, I’d take whatever the bet is that says that hope fails miserably (i.e. those who come along for the ride who lack character and competence becoming viable new generation leaders worthy of the seriousness of the moment). I don’t say this because I hope it is true – I say it because I believe it is true, and history has taught me, repeatedly, that it is true. But, and here is where I am content to be in the current political moment, along the way a bunch of good things will happen, nevertheless. And I will take those victories as they come. Even when they don’t come on purpose.
We will never not have a ruling class. We may have a new one, or an old one, but we will have one. And that ruling class will be of character and competence, or it will not be. But the challenges of our day will not be solved by replacing low character and low competence rulers with others, even if the new ones hate the old ones and are good at setting fires. Ultimately, the need of the hour is people of character being led by people of character.
That is never going to be a ballot box issue.